The 2020 U.S. presidential election was one of the most contentious and high-stakes elections in modern American history. Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and widespread political polarization, the results hinged on a narrow set of states, with the electoral vote margin between the two major candidates—Donald Trump and Joe Biden—ultimately coming down to a razor-thin difference of around 43,000 votes across just a few key battleground states. This electoral cliffhanger underscores the significance of every vote in the Electoral College system, where even a small shift in voter behavior in a handful of states can determine the outcome of the entire race.

The Electoral College Landscape

The Electoral College is a system that allocates a specific number of electors to each state, roughly in proportion to the state’s population. There are 538 total electoral votes, with 270 needed to win. In the 2020 election, Biden secured 306 electoral votes, while Trump garnered 232. This outcome may seem like a relatively comfortable win on paper, but it was far from a landslide. In fact, the results were incredibly tight in a number of key swing states, where just a few thousand votes separated the candidates.

The Key Battleground States

While Biden won the national popular vote by more than 7 million votes, the real focus in this election was on several pivotal battleground states that ultimately determined the winner. These states—Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona—were where the race was most competitive and where the final electoral count hung in the balance.

Wisconsin (10 Electoral Votes)

Wisconsin, a critical battleground, saw a narrow margin of victory for Biden. Biden won the state by 20,682 votes, or about 0.6% of the total. Trump had narrowly won Wisconsin in 2016, so the state was expected to be competitive once again in 2020. In the end, Biden’s win in Wisconsin came down to the difference of just a few thousand votes in places like Milwaukee County, where turnout among Black voters played a significant role in his victory.

Update: Trump won Wisconsin in 2024 with a margin of 0.9% (31,319)*.

Georgia (16 Electoral Votes)

Georgia was one of the biggest surprises of the 2020 election. For the first time since 1992, the state voted for a Democratic candidate. Biden won Georgia by a narrow margin of 11,779 votes—a difference of just 0.2%. His success in Georgia was due in large part to strong turnout among African American voters, particularly in metro Atlanta, as well as a shift among suburban voters who had previously supported Trump in 2016. The result was so close that Georgia conducted a full recount, confirming Biden’s victory.

Update: Trump won Georgia in 2024 with a margin of 2.3% (117,385)*.

Arizona (11 Electoral Votes)

Arizona, a traditionally Republican state, was also a major battleground in 2020. Biden won Arizona by 10,457 votes, or about 0.3%. This was a state that had been trending purple in recent elections, with changing demographics, particularly among Latino voters, contributing to the shift. Biden’s win in Arizona was seen as a major symbolic victory for Democrats, as it had been a Republican stronghold for decades.

Update: Trump won Arizona in 2024 with a margin of 4.7% (104,460)*.

The 43,000 Vote Difference: The Electoral College Margin

When the votes were counted and the results certified, the difference in the Electoral College came down to just 43,375 votes across these three key states—Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona. Biden’s narrow margins in these states helped him secure the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the presidency, but it also highlighted the fragility of the system.

While Biden’s popular vote margin was significant, the Electoral College system means that a candidate can win the popular vote by a large margin but still lose the election if they don’t perform well in the right states. The 2020 election served as a stark reminder of how close U.S. presidential races can be and how every vote counts—especially in battleground states where elections are often decided by just a handful of votes.

The Significance of Swing States

The 2020 election brought into sharp focus the importance of swing states and voter turnout. Small shifts in voter preferences in key counties in these states, whether driven by changes in demographics, voter suppression efforts, or a surge in mail-in ballots due to the pandemic, had the power to tip the scales. In some cases, such as Georgia and Arizona, this was the first time in decades that a Democratic candidate had won the state. In others, like Wisconsin and Michigan, the outcomes were so close that they highlighted the polarized nature of American politics.

This election cycle also reaffirmed the power of swing-state strategies. Both campaigns focused heavily on these states, with targeted advertising, rallies, and policy promises aimed at winning over undecided voters. For many, the narrow margins of victory in these states were a wake-up call about the importance of every single vote and the unpredictable nature of modern U.S. elections.

  • Updated numbers as of 7:00pm 11/20/2024. Donald Trump’s margin in the four states Kamala would need to win is 271,139. That’s 6 times the margin that Biden won with in 2020 and only half the margin that Hillary lost to Trump with in 2016.